Alternative Data

Federal Contract Spending

Federal procurement data mapped to 1,270 public companies — available 30 to 60 days before quarterly earnings.

For government-exposed companies, every contract award is a direct, observable preview of the next earnings print.

$6.58 trillion

Obligations mapped

65.3%

Composite hit rate

76 quarters

Validation window

Universe

1,270 SEC-mapped tickers (Fiscal Years 2007–2025)

Delivery

Within ~3 business days of award

Best for

Defense, IT services, aerospace equities

Output

Quarterly cross-sectional signal ranks

Primary Signal

Flagship

composite_signal

Ranks government-exposed companies by how much their recent contract activity deviates from their long-run baseline. Companies winning materially more than usual score high — a reliable, directly observable precursor to an earnings beat. Delivered as a ready-to-use quarterly cross-sectional rank.

+2.08%

Mean Information Coefficient

65.3%

Directional accuracy

0.39

Information Ratio

Annualized return by composite_signal quintile

Q1 = lowest signal quintile · Q5 = highest

A naïve Q5 long / Q1 short sort produces a +12.1% annualized spread over 75 quarters. The monotonic quintile structure confirms genuine predictive content — not a noise artifact. Defense and aerospace shows the strongest sector-level signal.

Why It Works

Federal contract data posts within days of execution — not quarters. For defense, IT, and aerospace companies where government revenue drives the top line, this creates a persistent, measurable edge over sell-side estimates that rely on management guidance and channel checks.

Interested in Federal Contract Spending?

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